NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for NEC Nijmegen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,214 vs 2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 NEC Nijmegen win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 PSV Eindhoven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 3-2 PSV Eindhoven | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 13, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 3-5 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 3-3 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Sep 14, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 2-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 30, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 3-1 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for NEC Nijmegen.
- Where and when is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Goffertstadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.