Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 31Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,158 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 238-point Elo edge (2,228 vs 1,989).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ajax
4-2-3-1- 99T. Arokodare
- 24J. Mokio
- 15Y. Baas
- 18D. Klaassen
- 10O. Gloukh
- 8J. Brandt
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 30A. Bouwman
- 36D. Janse
- 1M. ter Stegen
Fortuna Sittard
5-4-1- 9A. Descotte
- 23P. Brittijn
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
- 52M. Ihattaren
- 7K. Peterson
- 28Justin Quincy Hubner
- 6S. van Ottele
- 12Ivo Pinto
- 8J. Dahlhaus
- 3Rodrigo Guth
- 31M. Branderhorst
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 01:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Fortuna Sittard have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Nov 5, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-2 | KNVB Beker |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Ajax wins, 1 draw, 0 Fortuna Sittard wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 1-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Ajax 5-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 3.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fortuna Sittard score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 3rd in Eredivisie (25 points from 12 matches) and Fortuna Sittard sit 7th (20 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
A question about Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard played?
- Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.