AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1. If AZ Alkmaar wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate AZ Alkmaar (2,133) and Ajax (2,110).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 24A. Oufkir
- 14C. Stengs
- 21D. Kwakman
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
Ajax
4-3-3- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 10O. Gloukh
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Ajax have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AZ Alkmaar wins, 2 draws, 0 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 6-0 Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| Dec 8, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 2.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Ajax | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 3rd in Eredivisie (19 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Ajax.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.