Ajax vs Telstar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Telstar. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs Telstar?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 186-point Elo edge (2,110 vs 1,924).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Telstar have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Ajax win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Telstar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Telstar 2-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Ajax 2-0 Telstar | Eredivisie |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Ajax 2-0 Telstar | KNVB Beker |
| Dec 18, 2019 | Telstar 3-4 Ajax | KNVB Beker |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Telstar score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Telstar | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 6th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and Telstar sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Telstar?
- The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Telstar.
- Where and when is Ajax vs Telstar played?
- Ajax vs Telstar is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.