Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,918) and Fortuna Sittard (1,867).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Fortuna Sittard have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Fortuna Sittard win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Excelsior 1-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 5-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Excelsior 2-2 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| May 21, 2023 | Excelsior 3-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fortuna Sittard score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 10th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Fortuna Sittard sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard played?
- Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.