Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,956) and Fortuna Sittard (1,973).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior
4-3-3- 7A. Sliti
- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Fortuna Sittard
4-3-3- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
- 14S. Simons
- 9A. Descotte
- 23P. Brittijn
- 20É. Michut
- 6S. van Ottele
- 12Ivo Pinto
- 3Rodrigo Guth
- 28Justin Quincy Hubner
- 15N. de Groot
- 31M. Branderhorst
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 05:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Fortuna Sittard have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Twente(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Genk(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior wins, 1 draw, 3 Fortuna Sittard wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Excelsior 1-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 5-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Excelsior 2-2 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| May 21, 2023 | Excelsior 3-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior on Oct 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fortuna Sittard score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 13th in Eredivisie (11 points from 10 matches) and Fortuna Sittard sit 6th (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard played?
- Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.