NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Willem II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
NEC Nijmegen starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,806).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Willem II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 NEC Nijmegen win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Willem II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| May 3, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Willem II 4-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 22, 2021 | Willem II 0-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2021 | NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Jan 15, 2017 | Willem II 0-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Willem II sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
- The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Willem II.
- Where and when is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II played?
- NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Goffertstadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.