Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ortalyq stadıon, Aqtöbe (Aktobe)
The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Aktobe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty?
Kairat Almaty starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,787 vs 1,610).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aktobe have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Kairat Almaty have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Altay(away) | 4-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aktobe win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Kairat Almaty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Kairat Almaty 1-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Kairat Almaty 1-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| May 30, 2025 | Aktobe 1-2 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Kairat Almaty 2-0 Aktobe | Super Cup |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Aktobe 2-1 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Kairat Almaty 1-3 Aktobe | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kairat Almaty vs Aktobe on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aktobe score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kairat Almaty score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aktobe | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Kairat Almaty | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aktobe sit 5th in Premier League (35 points from 22 matches) and Kairat Almaty sit 2nd (48 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty?
- The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Aktobe.
- Where and when is Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty played?
- Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalyq stadıon, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.