Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ortalyq stadıon Jetisu, Taldykorgan
The Footlab model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Zhetysu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
FK Tobol Kostanay starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (1,600 vs 1,424).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zhetysu have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; FK Tobol Kostanay have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zhenys(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ordabasy(home) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Okzhetpes(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Kaisar(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Partizan(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Partizan(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Zhetysu win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 FK Tobol Kostanay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay 2-2 Zhetysu | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Zhetysu 1-2 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Jun 21, 2025 | FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 Zhetysu | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Zhetysu | Cup |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Zhetysu 0-3 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| May 4, 2024 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Zhetysu | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhetysu on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zhetysu score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; FK Tobol Kostanay score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhetysu | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zhetysu sit 14th in Premier League (19 points from 22 matches) and FK Tobol Kostanay sit 7th (28 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
- The Footlab model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Zhetysu.
- Where and when is Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay played?
- Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay is played on October 19, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ortalyq stadıon Jetisu, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.