Altay vs Yelimay Semey: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Semipalatinsk
The Footlab model makes Yelimay Semey the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Altay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Altay vs Yelimay Semey?
Yelimay Semey starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,627 vs 1,436).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Altay have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Yelimay Semey have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ordabasy(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Okzhetpes(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Astana(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kaspiy(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Irtysh(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zhenys(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kaisar(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Altay win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Yelimay Semey win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 1-1 Altay | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Yelimay Semey vs Altay on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Altay score 1.2 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Yelimay Semey score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altay | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Yelimay Semey | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Altay sit 16th in Premier League (17 points from 22 matches) and Yelimay Semey sit 6th (32 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 16 | Altay | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 35 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Altay vs Yelimay Semey?
- The Footlab model makes Yelimay Semey the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Altay.
- Where and when is Altay vs Yelimay Semey played?
- Altay vs Yelimay Semey is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.