Atyrau vs Irtysh: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Munayşı, Atyrau
The Footlab model makes Atyrau the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Irtysh. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atyrau vs Irtysh?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Atyrau (1,459) and Irtysh (1,481).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atyrau have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Irtysh have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Aktobe(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Zhetysu(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kaspiy(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ulytau(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atyrau win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Irtysh win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Irtysh 1-1 Atyrau | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2019 | Atyrau 0-3 Irtysh | Premier League |
| May 26, 2019 | Irtysh 1-0 Atyrau | Premier League |
| Mar 15, 2019 | Atyrau 1-3 Irtysh | Premier League |
| Sep 30, 2018 | Irtysh 1-0 Atyrau | Premier League |
| Aug 12, 2018 | Atyrau 2-0 Irtysh | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Atyrau score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Irtysh score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atyrau | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| Irtysh | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atyrau sit 12th in Premier League (20 points from 21 matches) and Irtysh sit 15th (17 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atyrau | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atyrau vs Irtysh?
- The Footlab model makes Atyrau the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Irtysh.
- Where and when is Atyrau vs Irtysh played?
- Atyrau vs Irtysh is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Munayşı, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.