Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)WE Al-Ahly Stadium, Cairo
The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Abu Qair Semad. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad?
Al Ahly starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (2,026 vs 1,798).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Ahly have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Abu Qair Semad have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 20, 2026 | AL Masry(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | Zamalek SC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | National Bank of Egypt(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 14, 2026 | Raya Ghazl(home) | 4-0 | Second League |
| May 7, 2026 | Tersana(away) | 0-0 | Second League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | La Viena FC(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Itesalat(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Al Ahly win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Abu Qair Semad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2020 | Al Ahly 2-1 Abu Qair Semad | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad on Nov 21, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Al Ahly score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Abu Qair Semad score 1.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahly | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Abu Qair Semad | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Ahly sit 2nd in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Abu Qair Semad sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Abu Qair Semad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Abu Qair Semad.
- Where and when is Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad played?
- Al Ahly vs Abu Qair Semad is played on September 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at WE Al-Ahly Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.