Alaves vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,526 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Alaves (2,074) and Celta Vigo (2,084).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 11Pablo Durán
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 14Aleix Febas
- 22Javi Galán
- 18Yoel Lago
- 3Marcos Alonso
- 15Álvaro Núñez
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 03:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Celta Vigo have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alaves wins, 2 draws, 2 Celta Vigo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves | La Liga |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 7th in La Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 9th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Celta Vigo played?
- Alaves vs Celta Vigo is played on February 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.