Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,401 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Alaves (2,053) and Rayo Vallecano (2,080).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alaves win, 1 draw, 4 Rayo Vallecano wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 23, 2026 | Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 7th in La Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.