Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Alaves (2,074) and Rayo Vallecano (2,095).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alaves win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 23, 2026 | Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 2nd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 15th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.