Malaga vs Valencia: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Valencia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,395 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Valencia?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Malaga (2,005) and Valencia (2,041).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Valencia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Valencia
5-4-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 8Javi Guerra
- 23F. Ugrinic
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 19Dani Raba
- 18Pepelu
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Maffeo
- 12J. de Haas
- 4M. Diakhaby
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Valencia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Malaga win, 1 draw, 4 Valencia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2018 | Malaga 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2017 | Valencia 5-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Apr 22, 2017 | Malaga 2-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Dec 4, 2016 | Valencia 2-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2016 | Malaga 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Oct 17, 2015 | Valencia 3-0 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Valencia score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Valencia | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Valencia sit 19th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Valencia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Valencia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Valencia played?
- Malaga vs Valencia is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.