Alcorcon vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 32Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santo Domingo, Alcorcón
The Footlab model makes Alcorcon the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Real Murcia?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Alcorcon (1,895) and Real Murcia (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcorcon have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mérida AD(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rayo Majadahonda(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Getafe II(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Sevilla Atletico(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Alcorcon win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Real Murcia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Alcorcon 1-0 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Real Murcia 2-1 Alcorcon | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Alcorcon 2-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Real Murcia 3-1 Alcorcon | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 10, 2022 | Real Murcia 1-1 Alcorcon | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Alcorcon vs Real Murcia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alcorcon score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alcorcon sit 11th in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (51 points from 38 matches) and Real Murcia sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
| 11 | Alcorcon | 38 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcorcon vs Real Murcia?
- The Footlab model makes Alcorcon the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Real Murcia.
- Where and when is Alcorcon vs Real Murcia played?
- Alcorcon vs Real Murcia is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santo Domingo, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.