Algeria vs Zambia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui, Constantine
The Footlab model makes Algeria the favourite at 69%, against 21% for a draw and 10% for Zambia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Algeria vs Zambia?
Algeria starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (1,770 vs 1,486).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Algeria have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Zambia have 1, 3 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Austria(home) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jordan(away) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Bolivia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Morocco(home) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Comoros(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mali(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Congo DR(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Algeria win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Zambia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2021 | Zambia 3-3 Algeria | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2019 | Algeria 5-0 Zambia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 5, 2017 | Algeria 0-1 Zambia | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 2, 2017 | Zambia 3-1 Algeria | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Algeria score 2.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Zambia score 0.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 2.2 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Zambia | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Algeria sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (16 points from 6 matches) and Zambia sit 1st (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zambia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | Algeria | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Algeria vs Zambia?
- The Footlab model makes Algeria the favourite at 69%, against 21% for a draw and 10% for Zambia.
- Where and when is Algeria vs Zambia played?
- Algeria vs Zambia is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.