Algeria vs Togo: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui, Constantine
The Footlab AI model makes Algeria the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Togo. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Algeria vs Togo?
Algeria starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (1,754 vs 1,487).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Algeria vs Togo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Algeria
4-2-3-1- 22M. Bakrar
- 30I. Maza
- 17H. Abdelli
- 10F. Chaïbi
- 20M. Belloumi
- 24I. Kebbal
- 13J. Hadjam
- 21R. Bensebaïni
- 5Z. Belaïd
- 4A. Touba
- 1M. Mastil
Known absences
M. AmouraOut · Hamstring injury
Togo
3-4-3- 10K. Denkey
- 17D. Karim
- 11C. Abi
- 21D. Dakonam
- 19H. Koudossou
- 6S. Ouro
- 15K. Aziangbe
- 5S. Nador
- 2K. Boma
- 3L. Bessilé
- 16M. Barcola
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Algeria have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Togo have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Niger(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Burundi(away) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Zambia(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Switzerland(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Austria(home) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Zambia(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Burundi(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Benin(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Central African Republic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Algeria wins, 0 draws, 0 Togo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Togo 0-1 Algeria | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Algeria 5-1 Togo | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2018 | Togo 1-4 Algeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Jun 11, 2017 | Algeria 1-0 Togo | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Algeria score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Togo score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Togo | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Algeria sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 2 matches) and Togo sit 3rd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Togo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Algeria vs Togo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Algeria vs Togo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Algeria the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Togo.
- Where and when is Algeria vs Togo played?
- Algeria vs Togo is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.