Zambia vs Burundi: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, Ndola
The Footlab model makes Zambia the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Burundi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zambia vs Burundi?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Zambia (1,486) and Burundi (1,415).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zambia have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Burundi have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Morocco(home) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Comoros(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mali(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Congo DR(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Chad(home) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Chad(away) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Gabon(away) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Kenya(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Zambia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Burundi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2013 | Zambia 0-0 Burundi | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
| Dec 1, 2013 | Zambia 1-0 Burundi | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Zambia score 0.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Burundi score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Burundi | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 0/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zambia sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (13 points from 6 matches) and Burundi sit 4th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zambia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Burundi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zambia vs Burundi?
- The Footlab model makes Zambia the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Burundi.
- Where and when is Zambia vs Burundi played?
- Zambia vs Burundi is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.