Zambia vs Burundi: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, Ndola
The Footlab AI model makes Zambia the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Burundi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Zambia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zambia vs Burundi?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Zambia (1,495) and Burundi (1,416).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Zambia vs Burundi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Zambia
4-2-3-1- 7K. Mutandwa
- 10F. Sakala
- 5M. Chaiwa
- 28David Simukonda
- 26J. Liteta
- 12W. Chisala
- 21Dominic Chanda
- 22D. Hamansenya
- 15M. Banda
- 3O. Chisala
- 16Willard Mwanza
Burundi
5-4-1- 12B. Bimenyimana
- 17H. Msanga
- 21A. Bigirimana
- 18J. Nshimirimana
- 15O. Mussa
- 22C. Nduwarugira
- 19F. Nsabiyumva
- 14Y. Ndayishimiye
- 20B. Kanakimana
- 3M. Weymans
- 1J. Nahimana
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zambia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Burundi have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Togo(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Algeria(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Morocco(home) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Comoros(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Algeria(home) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Togo(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 26, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Chad(home) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Chad(away) | 4-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Zambia win, 1 draw, 0 Burundi wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2013 | Zambia 0-0 Burundi | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
| Dec 1, 2013 | Zambia 1-0 Burundi | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Zambia score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Burundi score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Burundi | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 1/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zambia sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 2 matches) and Burundi sit 4th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Zambia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Burundi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Zambia vs Burundi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zambia vs Burundi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Zambia the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Burundi.
- Where and when is Zambia vs Burundi played?
- Zambia vs Burundi is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.