Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 17Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for FBC Melgar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Alianza Atletico (1,694) and FBC Melgar (1,751).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Atletico have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; FBC Melgar have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alianza Atletico win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 FBC Melgar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | FBC Melgar 3-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 0-0 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Feb 24, 2025 | FBC Melgar 2-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 3-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FBC Melgar 1-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Sep 15, 2023 | FBC Melgar 4-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Atletico sit 8th in Primera División (21 points from 17 matches) and FBC Melgar sit 5th (28 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for FBC Melgar.
- Where and when is Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar played?
- Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar is played on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 14, 2026UTC CajamarcavsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Nov 14, 2026Sporting CristalvsCienciano
- Nov 14, 2026Alianza LimavsFC Cajamarca
- Nov 14, 2026Sport HuancayovsUniversitario
- Nov 14, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsSport Boys
- Nov 14, 2026CuscovsADT
- Nov 14, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Nov 14, 2026UCV MoqueguavsAtletico Grau