Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Almirante Brown the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Deportivo Moron. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Almirante Brown (1,768) and Deportivo Moron (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almirante Brown have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Deportivo Moron have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tristan Suarez(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ciudad de Bolívar(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Atletico Mitre(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | San Telmo(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Acassuso(home) | 4-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chaco For Ever(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste(home) | 4-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Almirante Brown win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Deportivo Moron win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Deportivo Moron 1-0 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Deportivo Moron 2-0 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Almirante Brown 1-1 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Deportivo Moron 0-1 Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Almirante Brown 1-1 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Almirante Brown 0-1 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Moron vs Almirante Brown on Jun 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Almirante Brown score 0.9 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Moron score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown | 0.9 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Deportivo Moron | 1.7 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almirante Brown sit 4th in Primera Nacional (41 points from 26 matches) and Deportivo Moron sit 2nd (45 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Almirante Brown | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
- The Footlab model makes Almirante Brown the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Deportivo Moron.
- Where and when is Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron played?
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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