Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Quilmes the favourite at 49%, against 31% for a draw and 20% for San Martin Tucuman. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Quilmes (1,758) and San Martin Tucuman (1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Quilmes have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; San Martin Tucuman have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportivo Maipu(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Telmo(home) | 3-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patronato(away) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(home) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Temperley(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Quilmes win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 San Martin Tucuman win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman 0-0 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 28, 2025 | San Martin Tucuman 1-1 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| May 26, 2025 | Quilmes 1-2 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Quilmes 1-2 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 5, 2024 | San Martin Tucuman 0-0 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Quilmes 2-0 San Martin Tucuman | Copa Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Martin Tucuman vs Quilmes on Jun 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Quilmes score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Martin Tucuman score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| San Martin Tucuman | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Quilmes sit 10th in Primera Nacional (32 points from 26 matches) and San Martin Tucuman sit 9th (35 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Martin Tucuman | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
| 10 | Quilmes | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman?
- The Footlab model makes Quilmes the favourite at 49%, against 31% for a draw and 20% for San Martin Tucuman.
- Where and when is Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman played?
- Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026TemperleyvsChacarita Juniors
- Oct 17, 2026Atletico MitrevsGodoy Cruz
- Oct 17, 2026Ferro Carril OestevsChaco For Ever
- Oct 17, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsAtlanta
- Oct 17, 2026AlmagrovsTristan Suarez
- Oct 17, 2026Nueva ChicagovsSan Martin S.J.
- Oct 17, 2026Defensores De BelgranovsSan Miguel
- Oct 17, 2026PatronatovsAgropecuario