Almagro vs Tristan Suarez: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tres de Febrero, Tres de Febrero, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Tristan Suarez the favourite at 42%, against 34% for a draw and 24% for Almagro. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almagro vs Tristan Suarez?
Tristan Suarez starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almagro have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tristan Suarez have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colegiales(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Quilmes(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(home) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Midland(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Agropecuario(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Almirante Brown(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Club Atlético Güemes(away) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Almagro win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Tristan Suarez win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Tristan Suarez 0-0 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Almagro 0-1 Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Tristan Suarez 2-1 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 11, 2022 | Almagro 1-0 Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 23, 2021 | Tristan Suarez 1-1 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 16, 2021 | Almagro 1-3 Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Tristan Suarez vs Almagro on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Almagro score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tristan Suarez score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tristan Suarez | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almagro sit 13th in Primera Nacional (31 points from 26 matches) and Tristan Suarez sit 1st (48 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 28 | 13 | 48 |
| 13 | Almagro | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almagro vs Tristan Suarez?
- The Footlab model makes Tristan Suarez the favourite at 42%, against 34% for a draw and 24% for Almagro.
- Where and when is Almagro vs Tristan Suarez played?
- Almagro vs Tristan Suarez is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tres de Febrero, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Oct 17, 2026Nueva ChicagovsSan Martin S.J.
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