Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Colegiales, Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Colegiales the favourite at 47%, against 33% for a draw and 20% for Atletico DE Rafaela. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Colegiales (1,762) and Atletico DE Rafaela (1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colegiales have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico DE Rafaela have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Almagro(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Miguel(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Patronato(home) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Quilmes(away) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Club Atlético Güemes(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Colegiales win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Atletico DE Rafaela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela 1-0 Colegiales | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Atletico DE Rafaela vs Colegiales on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colegiales score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico DE Rafaela score 0.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 26% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colegiales | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 0.5 | 0.7 | 9 | 2/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colegiales sit 12th in Primera Nacional (31 points from 25 matches) and Atletico DE Rafaela sit 8th (36 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 36 |
| 12 | Colegiales | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
- The Footlab model makes Colegiales the favourite at 47%, against 33% for a draw and 20% for Atletico DE Rafaela.
- Where and when is Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela played?
- Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Colegiales, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 26% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026TemperleyvsChacarita Juniors
- Oct 17, 2026Atletico MitrevsGodoy Cruz
- Oct 17, 2026Ferro Carril OestevsChaco For Ever
- Oct 17, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsAtlanta
- Oct 17, 2026QuilmesvsSan Martin Tucuman
- Oct 17, 2026AlmagrovsTristan Suarez
- Oct 17, 2026Nueva ChicagovsSan Martin S.J.
- Oct 17, 2026PatronatovsAgropecuario