America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 14Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Santiago de Cali
The Footlab model makes America de Cali the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Independiente Medellin. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate America de Cali (1,844) and Independiente Medellin (1,817).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, America de Cali have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Independiente Medellin have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Atletico Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Once Caldas(away) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chico(home) | 7-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cucuta(home) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 3-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto(home) | 3-2 | Primera A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 America de Cali win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Independiente Medellin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Independiente Medellin 2-1 America de Cali | Primera A |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-1 America de Cali | Primera A |
| Nov 27, 2025 | America de Cali 2-1 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 3-0 America de Cali | Primera A |
| Jun 20, 2025 | America de Cali 1-1 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-1 America de Cali | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali on Mar 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
America de Cali score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 1.3 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Independiente Medellin | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
America de Cali sit 4th in Primera A (33 points from 19 matches) and Independiente Medellin sit 11th (26 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 6 | America de Cali | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 34 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
- The Footlab model makes America de Cali the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Independiente Medellin.
- Where and when is America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin played?
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 11, 2026Once CaldasvsLlaneros
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