Where and when is Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima played?

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 14Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería, Montería

Jaguares

Deportes Tolima

The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Jaguares. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima?

Deportes Tolima starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,634).

Jaguares win32 %

Draw30 %

Deportes Tolima win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jaguares have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Deportes Tolima have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Jaguares
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chico(home)	1-0	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Once Caldas(home)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 5, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(away)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 2, 2026	Atletico Nacional(home)	0-3	Primera A
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Cali(away)	0-2	Primera A

Deportes Tolima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bucaramanga(home)	0-0	Primera A
Aug 19, 2026	Independiente del Valle(home)	0-1	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 8, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(home)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Independiente Medellin(home)	2-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	2-1	Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Jaguares win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Deportes Tolima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 28, 2026	Deportes Tolima 3-1 Jaguares	Primera A
Aug 19, 2024	Jaguares 0-2 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Feb 15, 2024	Deportes Tolima 2-0 Jaguares	Primera A
Oct 6, 2023	Jaguares 0-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Apr 26, 2023	Deportes Tolima 1-1 Jaguares	Primera A
Aug 6, 2022	Deportes Tolima 2-2 Jaguares	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Deportes Tolima vs Jaguares on Mar 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Jaguares score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Tolima score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Jaguares	1.0	1.3	5	6/15	7/15
Deportes Tolima	1.2	1.1	5	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Jaguares sit 16th in Primera A (18 points from 19 matches) and Deportes Tolima sit 6th (31 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Deportes Tolima	23	10	7	6	31	21	37
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	31
15	Jaguares	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	18
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	18

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima?: The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Jaguares.
Where and when is Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima played?: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.