Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 14Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Deportivo Pasto. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (1,912 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Deportivo Pasto have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | America de Cali(away) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 3-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Llaneros(home) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 0-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Millonarios(away) | 0-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Águilas Doradas(home) | 1-2 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 3-0 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Atletico Nacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Deportivo Pasto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Deportivo Pasto 2-2 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Pasto score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Deportivo Pasto | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (40 points from 19 matches) and Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd (34 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 40 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportivo Pasto | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 34 |
| 11 | Atletico Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Deportivo Pasto.
- Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto played?
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026ChicovsCucuta
- Oct 11, 2026JaguaresvsDeportes Tolima
- Oct 11, 2026JuniorvsInternacional de Bogota
- Oct 11, 2026Once CaldasvsLlaneros
- Oct 11, 2026America de CalivsIndependiente Medellin
- Oct 11, 2026Santa FevsBucaramanga
- Oct 11, 2026Alianza ValleduparvsÁguilas Doradas
- Oct 11, 2026Fortaleza FCvsMillonarios