Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Arena Arda, Kardzhali
The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Arda Kardzhali (1,859) and Cherno More Varna (1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arda Kardzhali have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arda Kardzhali win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 2-3 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| May 3, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-3 Arda Kardzhali | Cup |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 0-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| May 18, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali on May 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arda Kardzhali sit 5th in First League (10 points from 5 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Arda, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.