Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 59%, against 27% for a draw and 15% for Ludogorets. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Levski Sofia (2,050) and Ludogorets (1,987).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Levski Sofia have 11 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats; Ludogorets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 6-0 | First League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Levski Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Ludogorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-1 Levski Sofia | First League |
| May 9, 2026 | Levski Sofia 0-1 Ludogorets | First League |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-0 Levski Sofia | First League |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-0 Levski Sofia | Cup |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Levski Sofia 0-1 Ludogorets | Super Cup |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Levski Sofia 0-0 Ludogorets | First League |
Last archived meeting: Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Levski Sofia score 2.5 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 2.5 | 0.4 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Levski Sofia sit 2nd in First League (15 points from 5 matches) and Ludogorets sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets?
- The Footlab model makes Levski Sofia the favourite at 59%, against 27% for a draw and 15% for Ludogorets.
- Where and when is Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets played?
- Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Georgi Asparuhov, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.