Match

Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 · Matchday 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Gobela, Getxo

Arenas GetxoBarakaldo

The Footlab AI model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Arenas Getxo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barakaldo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,999 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo?

A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Arenas Getxo (1,835) and Barakaldo (1,922).

30%30%40%
Arenas Getxo winDrawBarakaldo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Arenas Getxo

4-3-3
  1. 9José Luis Cortés
  2. 23Álex Oyón
  3. 14E. Redondo
  1. 16Gael Akogo Esono
  2. 6I. Garcia
  3. 24Álvaro Arnedo
  1. 18Rubi
  2. 2J. Larrauri
  3. 22A. Dufur
  4. 15B. Arratibel
  1. 1Manuel Obón

Barakaldo

4-3-3
  1. 19Ángel Troncho
  2. 11Carlos Mattheus
  3. 27E. Mateos
  1. 15I. Jimenez
  2. 8Julen Huidobro
  3. 21X. Fernandez
  1. 17Pablo Trigueros
  2. 5Aritz Muguruza
  3. 4O. Marotias
  4. 3Ander Zoilo
  1. 13Gaizka Campos

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 05:52 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Getxo have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Barakaldo have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arenas Getxo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Deportivo La Coruña II(home)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 1, 2026CD Coria(away)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 24, 2026UD Ourense(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 18, 2026Mérida AD(home)0-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 12, 2026Cultural Leonesa(away)1-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Real Unión(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 1, 2026Pontevedra(home)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 24, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 17, 2026Mirandes(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 10, 2026UD Ourense(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arenas Getxo win, 3 draws, 2 Barakaldo wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Barakaldo 1-1 Arenas GetxoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Mar 1, 2026Arenas Getxo 2-1 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2025Barakaldo 2-1 Arenas GetxoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 9, 2025Barakaldo 0-0 Arenas GetxoFriendlies Clubs
Jan 21, 2024Barakaldo 1-0 Arenas GetxoSegunda División RFEF - Group 2
Sep 9, 2023Arenas Getxo 1-1 BarakaldoSegunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last archived meeting: Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo on Oct 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Arenas Getxo score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Arenas Getxo0.92.137/159/15
Barakaldo1.10.975/153/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arenas Getxo sit 19th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (11 points from 11 matches) and Barakaldo sit 12th (14 points from 11 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Barakaldo11353101014
19Arenas Getxo11326102311

A question about Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo?

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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo?
The Footlab AI model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Arenas Getxo.
Where and when is Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo played?
Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Gobela, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Arenas Getxo and Barakaldo