UD Ourense vs Real Avilés: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense
The Footlab model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Real Avilés. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Real Avilés?
UD Ourense starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,977 vs 1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Ourense have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Real Avilés have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Conquense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Reddis(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 9, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
UD Ourense score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Ourense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Avilés | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Real Avilés | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 67 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Ourense vs Real Avilés?
- The Footlab model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Real Avilés.
- Where and when is UD Ourense vs Real Avilés played?
- UD Ourense vs Real Avilés is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.