UD Ourense vs Real Avilés: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense
The Footlab AI model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Real Avilés. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Ourense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,757 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Real Avilés?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate UD Ourense (1,917) and Real Avilés (1,913).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD Ourense vs Real Avilés
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD Ourense
4-3-3- 10David Ferreiro
- 11Sergi Baldrich
- 17Xabi Dominguez
- 14R. Martinez
- 22D. Tejon
- 16Álvaro Bastida
- 4J. Labrada
- 3Julio Cabrera
- 5L. Fernandez
- 2Varo
- 1Manuel Vizoso
Real Avilés
4-3-3- 14Berto Cayarga
- 8B. Abelenda
- 19N. Poquet
- 7Cris Montes
- 9Álvaro Santamaría
- 5Samuel
- 20O. Carracedo
- 21Jon Sillero
- 23A. Lopez
- 15Eric Pérez
- 1Álvaro Ratón
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 11:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Ourense have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Real Avilés have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 0-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 1-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | UD Ourense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Lugo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Barakaldo(away) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 UD Ourense wins, 0 draws, 1 Real Avilés win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Avilés 3-0 UD Ourense | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Real Avilés vs UD Ourense on Oct 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Ourense score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Avilés score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Ourense | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Real Avilés | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Ourense sit 19th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (5 points from 9 matches) and Real Avilés sit 14th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 11 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 5 |
A question about UD Ourense vs Real Avilés?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Ourense vs Real Avilés?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD Ourense the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Real Avilés.
- Where and when is UD Ourense vs Real Avilés played?
- UD Ourense vs Real Avilés is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.