Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Argentino de Quilmes, Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Argentino Quilmes the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Deportivo Merlo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Argentino Quilmes (1,646) and Deportivo Merlo (1,624).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Argentino Quilmes have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Deportivo Merlo have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | San Martín Burzaco(away) | 2-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Villa San Carlos(home) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Liniers(away) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Pilar(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | UAI Urquiza(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ituzaingó(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Camioneros(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sportivo Italiano(home) | 0-4 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | San Martín Burzaco(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Villa San Carlos(home) | 1-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Argentino Quilmes win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Deportivo Merlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo 1-0 Argentino Quilmes | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Argentino Quilmes 3-0 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Deportivo Merlo 1-0 Argentino Quilmes | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jun 24, 2024 | Argentino Quilmes 0-0 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Deportivo Merlo 0-1 Argentino Quilmes | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Deportivo Merlo 1-2 Argentino Quilmes | Primera B Metropolitana |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Merlo vs Argentino Quilmes on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Argentino Quilmes score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Merlo score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino Quilmes | 0.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Deportivo Merlo | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Argentino Quilmes sit 16th in Primera B Metropolitana (23 points from 20 matches) and Deportivo Merlo sit 8th (31 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportivo Merlo | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 31 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 45 | 39 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 28 | 33 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
- The Footlab model makes Argentino Quilmes the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Deportivo Merlo.
- Where and when is Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo played?
- Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Argentino de Quilmes, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Arsenal SarandivsUAI Urquiza
- Sep 12, 2026Brown DE AdroguevsSan Martín Burzaco
- Sep 12, 2026FlandriavsDeportivo Camioneros
- Sep 12, 2026Deportivo LaferrerevsVilla San Carlos
- Sep 12, 2026Talleres RemediosvsLiniers
- Sep 12, 2026Defensores UnidosvsDock Sud
- Sep 12, 2026Deportivo ArmeniovsSportivo Italiano
- Sep 12, 2026Argentino de MerlovsReal Pilar