Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce played?

Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia

Arka Gdynia

Pogoń Siedlce

The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Pogoń Siedlce. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce?

Arka Gdynia starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,759).

Arka Gdynia win56 %

Draw23 %

Pogoń Siedlce win21 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Pogoń Siedlce have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

Pogoń Siedlce
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Polonia Warszawa(home)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Nieciecza(home)	1-2	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(home)	1-1	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arka Gdynia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Pogoń Siedlce win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 26, 2025	Pogoń Siedlce 1-1 Arka Gdynia	I Liga
Oct 20, 2024	Arka Gdynia 2-1 Pogoń Siedlce	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Pogoń Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia on Apr 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Siedlce score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15
Pogoń Siedlce	1.1	1.8	3	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Siedlce sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
14	Pogoń Siedlce	5	1	2	2	5	6	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce?: The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Pogoń Siedlce.
Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce played?: Arka Gdynia vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.