Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Arka Gdynia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Polonia Warszawa (1,886) and Arka Gdynia (1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Warszawa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Arka Gdynia have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 4-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Odra Opole(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Polonia Warszawa win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Arka Gdynia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2025 | Arka Gdynia 0-0 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2023 | Arka Gdynia 2-3 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa on Feb 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Arka Gdynia | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polonia Warszawa sit 4th in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Arka Gdynia sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Arka Gdynia.
- Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia played?
- Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 10, 2027Miedz LegnicavsOdra Opole
- Apr 10, 2027Lechia GdanskvsStal Rzeszów
- Apr 10, 2027NiecieczavsUnia Skierniewice
- Apr 10, 2027Warta PoznańvsStal Mielec
- Apr 10, 2027Pogoń SiedlcevsPodbeskidzie
- Apr 10, 2027Ruch ChorzówvsŁKS Łódź
- Apr 10, 2027Polonia BytomvsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Apr 10, 2027Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsChrobry Głogów