Where and when is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli played?

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at SchücoArena, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)SchücoArena, Bielefeld

Arminia Bielefeld

FC St. Pauli

The Footlab model makes Arminia Bielefeld the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for FC St. Pauli. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Arminia Bielefeld (2,010) and FC St. Pauli (1,970).

Arminia Bielefeld win50 %

Draw25 %

FC St. Pauli win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arminia Bielefeld have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; FC St. Pauli have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arminia Bielefeld
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Energie Cottbus(home)	3-0	2. Bundesliga
Aug 8, 2026	Karlsruher SC(away)	1-2	2. Bundesliga
Jul 25, 2026	MSV Duisburg(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Bologna(away)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 8, 2026	FC Gutersloh(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 19, 2026	HNK Gorica(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arminia Bielefeld win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 FC St. Pauli win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 29, 2023	FC St. Pauli 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2022	Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Dec 21, 2019	FC St. Pauli 3-0 Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga
Jul 29, 2019	Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Apr 14, 2019	FC St. Pauli 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga
Nov 4, 2018	Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC St. Pauli vs Arminia Bielefeld on Apr 29, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Arminia Bielefeld score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FC St. Pauli score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arminia Bielefeld	2.5	1.5	3	11/15	11/15
FC St. Pauli	1.4	2.0	0	13/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arminia Bielefeld sit 6th in 2. Bundesliga (3 points from 2 matches) and FC St. Pauli sit 13th (2 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Arminia Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?: The Footlab model makes Arminia Bielefeld the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for FC St. Pauli.
Where and when is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli played?: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at SchücoArena, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.