Where and when is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg played?

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Holstein-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

Holstein Kiel

1. FC Nürnberg

The Footlab model makes 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Holstein Kiel. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?

A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Holstein Kiel (1,954) and 1. FC Nürnberg (2,010).

Holstein Kiel win35 %

Draw24 %

1. FC Nürnberg win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Holstein Kiel have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; 1. FC Nürnberg have 8, 6 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Holstein Kiel
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	FC St. Pauli(home)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 8, 2026	SV Darmstadt 98(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Jul 29, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FSV Mainz 05(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Swansea(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs

1. FC Nürnberg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(away)	4-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(home)	3-0	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Oviedo(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Palermo(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Waldhof Mannheim(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Holstein Kiel win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 1. FC Nürnberg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel 2-3 1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga
Oct 19, 2025	1. FC Nürnberg 1-1 Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga
Apr 6, 2024	1. FC Nürnberg 0-4 Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga
Oct 29, 2023	Holstein Kiel 0-2 1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga
Apr 15, 2023	Holstein Kiel 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg	2. Bundesliga
Oct 9, 2022	1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Holstein Kiel score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; 1. FC Nürnberg score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Holstein Kiel	1.6	1.5	4	10/15	12/15
1. FC Nürnberg	2.7	1.2	4	10/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Holstein Kiel sit 12th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and 1. FC Nürnberg sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	1. FC Nürnberg	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
12	Holstein Kiel	2	0	2	0	4	4	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg?: The Footlab model makes 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Holstein Kiel.
Where and when is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg played?: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Holstein-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.