Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück: prediction and stats
2. BundesligaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)SchücoArena, Bielefeld
The Footlab model makes Arminia Bielefeld the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for VfL Osnabrück. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Arminia Bielefeld (2,010) and VfL Osnabrück (2,002).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arminia Bielefeld have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; VfL Osnabrück have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach(away) | 2-2 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Energie Cottbus(home) | 3-0 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 1-2 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Bologna(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Spelle-Venhaus(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(home) | 0-3 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Heidenheim(away) | 3-4 | 2. Bundesliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Nordhorn(away) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arminia Bielefeld win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 VfL Osnabrück win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | VfL Osnabrück 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld | 3. Liga |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 VfL Osnabrück | 3. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2020 | Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfL Osnabrück | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2020 | Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfL Osnabrück | 2. Bundesliga |
| Oct 7, 2019 | VfL Osnabrück 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| Feb 18, 2015 | VfL Osnabrück 0-4 Arminia Bielefeld | 3. Liga |
Last archived meeting: VfL Osnabrück vs Arminia Bielefeld on Mar 15, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Arminia Bielefeld score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; VfL Osnabrück score 2.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| VfL Osnabrück | 2.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arminia Bielefeld sit 6th in 2. Bundesliga (3 points from 2 matches) and VfL Osnabrück sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | VfL Osnabrück | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück?
- The Footlab model makes Arminia Bielefeld the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for VfL Osnabrück.
- Where and when is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück played?
- Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at SchücoArena, in the 2. Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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