Alverca vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alverca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Alverca (2,132) and Arouca (2,154).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alverca vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 25Ian Luccas
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alverca have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Arouca have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Alverca win, 0 draws, 1 Arouca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Alverca 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Arouca 1-0 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alverca score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alverca sit 10th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Alverca vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Alverca vs Arouca played?
- Alverca vs Arouca is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.