Arsenal vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 16Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester United?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 245-point Elo edge (2,328 vs 2,083).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arsenal vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 20N. Madueke
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 17C. Tzolis
- 15E. Konsa
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 33R. Calafiori
- 12J. Timber
- 1David Raya
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 16A. Diallo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 37K. Mainoo
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15Leny Yoro
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 02:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Manchester United have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arsenal wins, 2 draws, 1 Manchester United win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Arsenal 2-3 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Manchester United 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Arsenal 1-1 Manchester United | FA Cup |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Arsenal 2-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Manchester United on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 1st in Premier League (27 points from 10 matches) and Manchester United sit 18th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Arsenal vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Manchester United played?
- Arsenal vs Manchester United is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.