Chelsea vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chelsea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,073 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
On Elo ratings, Chelsea has 2,141 points and Aston Villa 2,172.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
4-2-3-1- 7Pedro Neto
- 17M. Rogers
- 25M. Caicedo
- 10C. Palmer
- 45R. Lavia
- 14J. Henderson
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 6L. Colwill
- 3W. Fofana
- 5M. Lacroix
- 39M. Penders
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 35João Gomes
- 47Alysson Edward
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 2M. Cash
- 22I. Maatsen
- 14Pau Torres
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 11:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Aston Villa have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Viking(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chelsea wins, 1 draw, 2 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-4 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 4th in Premier League (16 points from 9 matches) and Aston Villa sit 12th (12 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
A question about Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Aston Villa played?
- Chelsea vs Aston Villa is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.