Chelsea vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Chelsea (2,175) and Aston Villa (2,206).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chelsea win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-4 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 6th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Aston Villa sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Aston Villa played?
- Chelsea vs Aston Villa is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.