Athletic Carpi vs Union Brescia: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 20Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Sandro Cabassi, Carpi
The Footlab model makes Union Brescia the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Carpi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Carpi vs Union Brescia?
Union Brescia starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,863 vs 1,739).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Carpi have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Union Brescia have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pianese(home) | 3-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937(away) | 3-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Forli(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Athletic Carpi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Union Brescia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Union Brescia 3-1 Athletic Carpi | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Athletic Carpi 0-1 Union Brescia | Coppa Italia Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Union Brescia vs Athletic Carpi on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Carpi score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Union Brescia score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Carpi | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Union Brescia | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Carpi sit 17th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Union Brescia sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Union Brescia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Athletic Carpi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Carpi vs Union Brescia?
- The Footlab model makes Union Brescia the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Carpi.
- Where and when is Athletic Carpi vs Union Brescia played?
- Athletic Carpi vs Union Brescia is played on January 3, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Sandro Cabassi, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.