Athletic Club vs Sport Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Joaquim Portugal, São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Athletic Club (1,816) and Sport Recife (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Sport Recife have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Novorizontino(home) | 1-4 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | America Mineiro(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Athletic Club win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Sport Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | Sport Recife 1-1 Athletic Club | Serie B |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Sport Recife 1-3 Athletic Club | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Sport Recife vs Athletic Club on Jun 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sport Recife score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Sport Recife | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 10th in Serie B (34 points from 24 matches) and Sport Recife sit 6th (38 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sport Recife | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Sport Recife played?
- Athletic Club vs Sport Recife is played on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Joaquim Portugal, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.