Atlas vs Puebla: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
The Footlab AI model makes Atlas the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Puebla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atlas wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlas vs Puebla?
Atlas starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,761).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atlas vs Puebla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atlas
3-4-2-1- 9F. Monzón
- 10Luís Esteves
- 15Paulo Ramírez
- 18E. Montiel
- 3J. Sánchez
- 8R. Mmaee
- 20K. Zenón
- 44J. Purata
- 16M. Valenzuela
- 19A. Frías
- 12C. Vargas
Puebla
4-2-3-1- 19I. Maestro Puch
- 27B. Garnica
- 24A. Organista
- 10M. Tomás
- 22C. Baltazar
- 21S. Sanabria
- 5F. Almada
- 7F. Monárrez
- 4J. Vargas
- 12I. Moreno
- 28R. Gutiérrez
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlas have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Puebla have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 2-5 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Toluca(home) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atlas wins, 1 draw, 1 Puebla win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Atlas 1-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Puebla 2-3 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atlas 3-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Puebla 1-2 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Puebla 2-2 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Sep 29, 2023 | Atlas 2-3 Puebla | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Atlas score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Puebla score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Puebla | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlas sit 6th in Liga MX (18 points from 11 matches) and Puebla sit 9th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
A question about Atlas vs Puebla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlas vs Puebla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atlas the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Puebla.
- Where and when is Atlas vs Puebla played?
- Atlas vs Puebla is played on October 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.