Atlas vs Puebla: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
The Footlab model makes Atlas the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Puebla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlas vs Puebla?
Atlas starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,869 vs 1,741).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlas have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Puebla have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | CF Pachuca(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 2-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 2-5 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atlas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Puebla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Atlas 1-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Puebla 2-3 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atlas 3-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Puebla 1-2 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Puebla 2-2 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Sep 29, 2023 | Atlas 2-3 Puebla | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Atlas score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Puebla score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Puebla | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlas sit 9th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Puebla sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlas vs Puebla?
- The Footlab model makes Atlas the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Puebla.
- Where and when is Atlas vs Puebla played?
- Atlas vs Puebla is played on October 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.