Leon vs Toluca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio León (Nou Camp), León de los Aldamas
The Footlab AI model makes Toluca the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Leon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toluca wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leon vs Toluca?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,065 vs 1,923).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leon vs Toluca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leon
4-1-4-1- 27D. Cambindo
- 29J. Rodríguez
- 203J. Lara
- 11I. Díaz
- 16J. Cortizo
- 18E. Guerra
- 7I. Moreno
- 14J. Romaña
- 3Juan José Guevara Possu
- 26S. Reyes
- 23Ó. García
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 26Paulinho
- 8N. Castro
- 9A. Vega
- 11Helinho
- 5F. Romero
- 35É. Gutiérrez
- 6F. Pereira
- 4B. Méndez
- 20J. Gallardo
- 17B. García
- 22L. García
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leon have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Toluca have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 3-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Leon wins, 2 draws, 4 Toluca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toluca 2-0 Leon | Leagues Cup |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Toluca 4-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Leon 2-4 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Leon 3-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Toluca 2-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Leon | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Leon score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Toluca | 2.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leon sit 5th in Liga MX (18 points from 11 matches) and Toluca sit 2nd (20 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
A question about Leon vs Toluca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leon vs Toluca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toluca the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Leon.
- Where and when is Leon vs Toluca played?
- Leon vs Toluca is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio León (Nou Camp), in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.