Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 9Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Deportes Tolima. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,814).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Deportes Tolima have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | America de Cali(away) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 3-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(away) | 1-3 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bucaramanga(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota(home) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 2-3 | Primera A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atletico Nacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Deportes Tolima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| May 16, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 0-1 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 0-0 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Atletico Nacional 2-0 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Tolima score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Deportes Tolima | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (40 points from 19 matches) and Deportes Tolima sit 6th (31 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 40 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 31 |
| 11 | Atletico Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Deportes Tolima.
- Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima played?
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 6, 2026BucaramangavsIndependiente Medellin
- Sep 6, 2026ChicovsOnce Caldas
- Sep 6, 2026Internacional de BogotavsÁguilas Doradas
- Sep 6, 2026JuniorvsJaguares
- Sep 6, 2026America de CalivsAlianza Valledupar
- Sep 6, 2026Santa FevsFortaleza FC
- Sep 6, 2026Deportivo PereiravsMillonarios
- Sep 6, 2026LlanerosvsDeportivo Cali