Where and when is Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin played?

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Américo Montanini, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 9Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga

Bucaramanga

Independiente Medellin

The Footlab model makes Bucaramanga the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Independiente Medellin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?

A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Bucaramanga (1,740) and Independiente Medellin (1,821).

Bucaramanga win48 %

Draw28 %

Independiente Medellin win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bucaramanga have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Independiente Medellin have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bucaramanga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Deportes Tolima(away)	0-0	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	3-2	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Cucuta(home)	1-1	Primera A
Jul 31, 2026	Llaneros(home)	1-1	Primera A
Jul 25, 2026	Millonarios(away)	1-0	Primera A

Independiente Medellin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Cucuta(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Deportes Tolima(away)	3-2	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo Cali(home)	1-0	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Vasco DA Gama(away)	0-1	CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Pasto(home)	3-2	Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bucaramanga win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Independiente Medellin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Independiente Medellin 1-2 Bucaramanga	Primera A
Jan 13, 2026	Independiente Medellin 3-1 Bucaramanga	Friendlies Clubs
Oct 29, 2025	Independiente Medellin 3-0 Bucaramanga	Primera A
May 10, 2025	Bucaramanga 2-0 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Nov 4, 2024	Bucaramanga 2-3 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Apr 14, 2024	Independiente Medellin 1-0 Bucaramanga	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bucaramanga score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bucaramanga	1.5	1.4	4	8/15	8/15
Independiente Medellin	1.3	1.1	4	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bucaramanga sit 13th in Primera A (23 points from 19 matches) and Independiente Medellin sit 11th (26 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
4	Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26	20	23
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26	20	23

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?: The Footlab model makes Bucaramanga the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Independiente Medellin.
Where and when is Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin played?: Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Américo Montanini, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.