Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 16Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Independiente Medellin. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Atletico Nacional (1,916) and Independiente Medellin (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Independiente Medellin have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | America de Cali(away) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 3-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cucuta(home) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 3-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto(home) | 3-2 | Primera A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atletico Nacional win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Independiente Medellin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Independiente Medellin 2-3 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 0-1 Atletico Nacional | Copa Colombia |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 0-0 Independiente Medellin | Copa Colombia |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 0-0 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 5-2 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Independiente Medellin | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (40 points from 19 matches) and Independiente Medellin sit 11th (26 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 40 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 21 | 55 |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 11 | Atletico Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Independiente Medellin.
- Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin played?
- Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026ChicovsBucaramanga
- Oct 25, 2026JaguaresvsLlaneros
- Oct 25, 2026JuniorvsÁguilas Doradas
- Oct 25, 2026Once CaldasvsDeportivo Pereira
- Oct 25, 2026America de CalivsCucuta
- Oct 25, 2026Santa FevsMillonarios
- Oct 25, 2026Alianza ValleduparvsInternacional de Bogota
- Oct 25, 2026Deportes TolimavsDeportivo Pasto