Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 16Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué
The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Deportivo Pasto. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Deportes Tolima starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,803 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportes Tolima have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Deportivo Pasto have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(away) | 1-3 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bucaramanga(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota(home) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 2-3 | Primera A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Llaneros(home) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 0-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Millonarios(away) | 0-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Águilas Doradas(home) | 1-2 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 3-0 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Deportes Tolima win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Deportivo Pasto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto 0-2 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| May 9, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 1-0 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Deportivo Pasto 3-2 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 2-0 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Deportes Tolima | Copa Colombia |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportes Tolima score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Pasto score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Deportivo Pasto | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportes Tolima sit 6th in Primera A (31 points from 19 matches) and Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd (34 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 31 |
| 7 | Deportivo Pasto | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 34 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
- The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Deportivo Pasto.
- Where and when is Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto played?
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026ChicovsBucaramanga
- Oct 25, 2026JaguaresvsLlaneros
- Oct 25, 2026JuniorvsÁguilas Doradas
- Oct 25, 2026Once CaldasvsDeportivo Pereira
- Oct 25, 2026Atletico NacionalvsIndependiente Medellin
- Oct 25, 2026America de CalivsCucuta
- Oct 25, 2026Santa FevsMillonarios
- Oct 25, 2026Alianza ValleduparvsInternacional de Bogota