Match

Chico vs Bucaramanga: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 16Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de La Independencia, Tunja

ChicoBucaramanga

The Footlab model makes Bucaramanga the favourite at 34%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Chico. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Chico vs Bucaramanga?

Bucaramanga starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,740 vs 1,582).

Chico win34 %
Draw31 %
Bucaramanga win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chico have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Bucaramanga have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Chico
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Jaguares(away)0-1Primera A
Aug 8, 2026Santa Fe(away)0-2Primera A
Aug 2, 2026America de Cali(away)0-7Primera A
May 27, 2026Llaneros(home)0-1Copa Colombia
May 23, 2026Millonarios(away)2-2Copa Colombia
Bucaramanga
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Deportes Tolima(away)0-0Primera A
Aug 9, 2026Alianza Valledupar(away)3-2Primera A
Aug 4, 2026Cucuta(home)1-1Primera A
Jul 31, 2026Llaneros(home)1-1Primera A
Jul 25, 2026Millonarios(away)1-0Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chico win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Bucaramanga win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026Bucaramanga 5-0 ChicoPrimera A
Jul 12, 2025Bucaramanga 1-1 ChicoPrimera A
Jun 10, 2025Bucaramanga 3-2 ChicoCopa Colombia
Jan 24, 2025Chico 1-0 BucaramangaPrimera A
Nov 6, 2024Chico 1-1 BucaramangaPrimera A
Apr 20, 2024Bucaramanga 2-3 ChicoPrimera A

Last archived meeting: Bucaramanga vs Chico on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Chico score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bucaramanga score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Chico0.81.752/156/15
Bucaramanga1.51.448/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Chico sit 18th in Primera A (17 points from 19 matches) and Bucaramanga sit 13th (23 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Bucaramanga5230649
13Bucaramanga19586262023
13Bucaramanga19586262023
18Chico195212153217
18Chico195212153217
20Chico30030100

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Chico vs Bucaramanga?
The Footlab model makes Bucaramanga the favourite at 34%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Chico.
Where and when is Chico vs Bucaramanga played?
Chico vs Bucaramanga is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de La Independencia, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Chico and Bucaramanga

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