Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga: prediction and stats
CupRegions Path - 3rd RoundKick-off on August 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Trudovye Reservy, Kursk
The Footlab model makes Kaluga the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Avangard Kursk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga?
Kaluga starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,716 vs 1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avangard Kursk have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Kaluga have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(away) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zenit Penza(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kristall MEZ(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strogino(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(home) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(away) | 1-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dinamo Kirov(away) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Avangard Kursk win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Kaluga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2025 | Avangard Kursk 1-2 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Silver |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Kaluga 2-1 Avangard Kursk | Second League A - Division A Silver |
| May 21, 2025 | Avangard Kursk 0-2 Kaluga | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kaluga 1-1 Avangard Kursk | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Avangard Kursk 1-0 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Kaluga 1-1 Avangard Kursk | Second League A - Division A Gold |
Last archived meeting: Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga on Sep 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Avangard Kursk score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Kaluga score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avangard Kursk | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Kaluga | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga?
- The Footlab model makes Kaluga the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Avangard Kursk.
- Where and when is Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga played?
- Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga is played on August 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Trudovye Reservy, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.