AVS vs Moreirense: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 64Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves
The Footlab AI model makes AVS the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If AVS wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AVS vs Moreirense?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate AVS (2,042) and Moreirense (2,093).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AVS vs Moreirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AVS
4-3-3- 9Rodrigo Pinho
- 30Talles Wander
- 10Keita
- 70Roni
- 78Andrey
- 80Hiago Santos
- 97Matheus Pivô
- 88F. Almeida
- 3L. Rosić
- 12L. Rivas
- 1Dani Rebollo
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 06:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AVS have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Moreirense have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Farense(home) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 AVS wins, 3 draws, 2 Moreirense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Moreirense 2-2 AVS | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Moreirense 0-0 AVS | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AVS 0-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | AVS 0-3 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Moreirense 1-1 AVS | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
AVS score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Moreirense score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Moreirense | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about AVS vs Moreirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AVS vs Moreirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes AVS the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is AVS vs Moreirense played?
- AVS vs Moreirense is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.